Climate change, population growth, urbanization and development in natural hazard-prone regions are exacerbating the effects of extreme weather and other disasters.

This Columbia World Project further developed, tested and implemented an open-source model to more accurately forecast the risk of hurricanes and tropical cyclones, as well as the damage that they would likely cause for vulnerable communities.

It is estimated that $924 billion in insured losses resulted from tropical cyclones in the past decade. International organizations, governments, the private sector and financial institutions expend billions of dollars responding to such disasters, but the models they rely on to plan for and respond to such events suffer from significant limitations. Importantly, they generally fail to account for climate change; are not transparent about their methodology; and focus on risks for the insurance industry rather than on the damage that vulnerable communities will sustain.

For this project, Columbia researchers partnered with the World Bank and other partners to broaden the understanding of the real consequences of natural disasters on the poor, breaking new ground in how damage is calculated. The project also leveraged the insurance industry’s experience to improve the responsiveness of risk models to climate change.

The work focused on geographical regions that are vulnerable to severe hurricanes and tropical cyclones, but with a broader goal of setting a new standard of openness, scientific rigor and community engagement in the field of disaster preparedness and response.

In Partnership With:

• Aon
• Swiss Re Foundation
• The World Bank